Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0385…96c8 other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,201 (-6%) realized −$3,164 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate70%23W / 10L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,688per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,564
7 days−$3,639
14 days−$3,453
30 days−$3,453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$3,469
sports 2% +$305
crypto 0% −$122
world 0% −$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +3.0% -6.8% 74% 33% -15.4%
≤30d 33 -3.2% -12.4% 70% 36% -15.0%
≤90d 33 -3.2% -12.4% 70% 36% -15.0%
all 33 -3.2% -12.4% 70% 36% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 36% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 27% -23.1%
15% -28.4% 21% -30.6%
20% -35.5% 12% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$4,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$257 vs −$936 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$3,164
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses23 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1,688
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $200 $163 −$37 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $607 −$257 -42%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5,013 +$440 +9%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4,886 +$305 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4,903 +$88 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4,512 +$428 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4,003 +$99 +2%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 +$11 +10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4,004 +$116 +3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3,004 +$1,318 +44%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $352 +$257 +73%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4,019 −$4,000 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $103 −$88 -85%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $41 +$90 +219%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4,010 +$334 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $808 +$296 +37%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $800 +$1 +0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $701 +$35 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4,288 −$3,173 -74%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $501 −$501 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,009 −$995 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $255 +$374 +147%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $626 +$72 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3,907 +$1,127 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,997 +$127 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $576 +$189 +33%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $510 +$67 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $107 −$107 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $117 11m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 21m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 24m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,453 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 92¢ $5,013 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 45¢ $350 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $507 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,191 20h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 94¢ $4,809 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,991 20h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 86¢ $77 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $4,903 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,940 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 91¢ $4,512 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,103 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $4,003 24h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $113 24h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,119 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $4,004 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,322 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $2,396 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $608 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $608 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $352 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $4,019 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.13 · official $163.19 (match) · 80 history records