Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0385…9a6f world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$249 (-4%) realized −$249 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate23%11W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$24
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$14
sports 22% −$281
other 16% +$34
politics 4% −$2
finance 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 28 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 41 +0.3% -9.2% 24% 2% -9.6%
all 47 +0.6% -8.9% 23% 4% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -12.9%
10% -17.7% 2% -21.2%
15% -25.6% 2% -28.8%
20% -32.9% 2% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$18 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$249
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses11 / 36
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage185d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $145 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $98 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $162 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $89 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $210 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $104 −$6 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $40 −$2 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $95 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $96 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $355 −$16 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $580 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $162 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $73 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $362 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $45 +$10 +21%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $6 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $124 +$5 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $3 $0 -6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $2 $0 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $99 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $96 −$6 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $74 +$3 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $282 −$3 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $114 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $79 +$4 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $97 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 18 $98 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $131 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $98 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $14 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $108 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $245 −$2 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $258 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $650 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 21 $344 +$2 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-28? Dec 29 $29 +$33 +117%
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025? Dec 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Dec 23 $29 $0 +0%
Bengals vs. Dolphins Dec 22 $284 −$284 -100%
Jaguars vs. Broncos Dec 16 $568 $0 +0%
Falcons vs. Cardinals Dec 16 $284 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $98 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $98 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $98 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $98 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $55 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $7 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $10 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $52 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $54 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $89 45h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $98 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $98 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $98 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $104 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $69 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $87 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $47 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $90 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 237 history records