Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0387…b62b other 37 markets active 3d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$25 (-8%) realized −$27 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$16
crypto 26% +$5
sports 15% −$17
politics 14% +$1
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -28.5% -35.3% 48% 29% -25.3%
≤30d 21 -28.5% -35.3% 48% 29% -25.3%
≤90d 21 -28.5% -35.3% 48% 29% -25.3%
all 21 -28.5% -35.3% 48% 29% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.3% 29% -25.3%
10% ← realistic here -41.5% 24% -32.4%
15% -47.1% 14% -39.0%
20% -52.3% 10% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)21 / 37
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 90¢ 81¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will England go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will Switzerland go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 64¢ 69¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Spain go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Mohamed Salah play in MLS next? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-52%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$5 -26%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +25%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $5 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $5 3d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 100¢ $13 3d
Will Mohamed Salah play in MLS next? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 98¢ $10 4d
Will Spain go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 4d
Will Switzerland go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 4d
Will England go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 4d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 4d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 89¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 4d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $10 5d
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 5d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.24 · official $122.24 (match) · 71 history records