Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:36:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0389…847b sports 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16,568 (-3%) realized −$12,769 · open −$3,799
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 42L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,919per market
Trades / day54.4pace
Fees−$6,996est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$33,537
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -71.1% -73.9% 10% 10% -77.0%
≤30d 34 -13.9% -22.1% 47% 47% -10.9%
≤90d 78 -2.6% -11.9% 46% 44% -11.1%
all 78 -2.6% -11.9% 46% 44% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 44% -11.1%
10% -20.3% 41% -19.6%
15% ← realistic here -28.0% 38% -27.3%
20% -35.1% 29% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$8,748) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
38.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,783 vs −$4,076 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1,372
Realized−$12,769
Unrealized−$3,799
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$6,996
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$6,919
Trades / day54.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Scotland 51¢ 14¢ $5,171 $1,372 −$3,799 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Jun 18 $5,261 −$5,261 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $7 −$6 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $16,302 −$13,806 -85%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $153 −$149 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $8,775 −$8,720 -99%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $8,748 −$3,456 -40%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $4,407 −$717 -16%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $738 +$329 +45%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $2,137 +$407 +19%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $13,151 +$11,652 +89%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Warwickshire Jun 07 $4 −$4 -97%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 07 $321 +$190 +59%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 06 $938 +$680 +72%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $8,820 −$8,724 -99%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 04 $11,075 −$2,400 -22%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 03 $3,676 +$2,620 +71%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex Jun 03 $3,488 +$2,961 +85%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $950 −$233 -25%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $50 +$25 +50%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 01 $122 +$92 +75%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex May 30 $3,977 +$2,461 +62%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $16,865 +$11,762 +70%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $10,946 −$10,395 -95%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 28 $22,413 +$14,594 +65%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $16,180 −$232 -1%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $4,835 +$2,977 +62%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 25 $16,344 −$7,003 -43%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $12,569 −$9,222 -73%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $15,573 +$4,387 +28%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $11,781 +$4,438 +38%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $10,604 +$4,243 +40%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $13,060 −$8,160 -62%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $10,131 −$6,611 -65%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $11,592 −$8,850 -76%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $12,547 +$6,815 +54%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 17 $12,444 +$12,926 +104%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 16 $298 −$27 -9%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 16 $1,928 +$1,056 +55%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $8,997 −$3,697 -41%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 14 $6,161 +$34 +1%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 13 $17,902 +$3 +0%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $6,759 −$1,735 -26%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $6,288 −$6,200 -99%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $9,608 −$5,169 -54%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 10 $10,424 +$5,865 +56%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 09 $8,510 −$2,221 -26%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 08 $14,724 +$6,139 +42%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 07 $6,107 +$3,513 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 57¢ $2 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 57¢ $41 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 56¢ $284 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 57¢ $114 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 57¢ $90 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 57¢ $24 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 57¢ $3 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 57¢ $114 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 57¢ $114 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 57¢ $11 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 57¢ $77 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 57¢ $1,419 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 47¢ $2,478 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 47¢ $42 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 47¢ $2 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 47¢ $5 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 47¢ $4 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 47¢ $94 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 47¢ $94 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 47¢ $94 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 47¢ $2 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 47¢ $5 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 54¢ $24 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 42¢ $3 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 42¢ $4 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 42¢ $10 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 42¢ $21 2h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 0¢ $2 31h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 0¢ $0 31h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 0¢ $1 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,371.53 · official $1,371.53 (match) · 3500 history records