Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0389…069a crypto 1258 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$203 (+2%) realized +$203 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate65%823W / 435L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$89
14 days−$95
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 268 -3.2% -12.4% 61% 36% -13.0%
≤30d 297 -3.5% -12.7% 60% 37% -12.9%
≤90d 1258 +0.3% -9.2% 65% 41% -10.2%
all 1258 +0.3% -9.2% 65% 41% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 41% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 33% -18.8%
15% -25.9% 32% -26.6%
20% -33.1% 31% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$203
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses823 / 435
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1258 / 1258
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1258 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $12 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.94 · official $0.00 (match) · 3441 history records