Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:56:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x038a…ba3f other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$239 (-11%) realized −$252 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate68%51W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$225
world 14% +$32
weather 11% −$43
politics 1% $0
crypto 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.2% -3.9% 100% 0% -3.9%
≤30d 1 +6.2% -3.9% 100% 0% -3.9%
≤90d 37 -29.3% -36.0% 59% 30% -44.0%
all 75 -9.0% -17.7% 68% 31% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 31% -19.7%
10% -25.5% 19% -27.4%
15% -32.7% 12% -34.4%
20% -39.3% 7% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$21 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$252
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses51 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage174d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 94¢ $34 $47 +$13 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $28 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 2? May 02 $21 +$9 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 2? May 01 $27 −$27 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $43 +$19 +45%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $14 +$10 +76%
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 30 $18 +$2 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 30 $18 +$1 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 26? Apr 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 26? Apr 26 $19 +$6 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 24? Apr 25 $12 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or higher on April 24? Apr 25 $17 +$3 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $36 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 22? Apr 22 $12 +$3 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 22? Apr 22 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 mi Apr 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 21 be greater than Apr 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 19 - January 25 be Apr 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 21 be between 1,90 Apr 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 1 be greater than Apr 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 24 be between 2,10 Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 mil Apr 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 19 - January 25 be Apr 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on January 7? Apr 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Apr 16 $98 −$55 -56%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Apr 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 25 be greater than Apr 16 $28 −$28 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 13 $18 +$2 +8%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 13 $19 +$1 +3%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 13 $24 +$2 +9%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $20 $0 +2%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 29 be greater than Mar 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 19 - January 25 be Mar 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Aztec FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 24 $28 +$2 +5%
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 24 $33 +$7 +22%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 6 be greater than Feb 10 $28 +$12 +45%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 4 be between 1,70 Feb 05 $26 +$24 +89%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 3 be less than 2, Feb 04 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 27 be less than 2, Jan 31 $27 +$3 +10%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 28 be less than 2, Jan 31 $35 +$5 +14%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 24 be less than 2, Jan 28 $14 +$2 +11%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.04? Jan 26 $28 +$2 +6%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.08? Jan 26 $29 +$1 +2%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.03? Jan 26 $57 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $28 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 2? BUY No 90¢ $22 52d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 2? BUY No 90¢ $5 52d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 2? BUY No 70¢ $21 52d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 52d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 53d
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? BUY No 88¢ $18 53d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $18 57d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $18 57d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 55¢ $14 58d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 26? BUY No 88¢ $26 58d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 26? BUY No 75¢ $19 58d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $11 60d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or higher on April 24? BUY No 84¢ $17 60d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 24? BUY No 77¢ $12 60d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 61d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 22? BUY No 77¢ $4 62d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 22? BUY No 88¢ $7 62d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 22? BUY No 77¢ $3 62d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 22? BUY No 88¢ $7 62d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 22? BUY No 77¢ $4 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $19 67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY No 99¢ $9 69d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $13 69d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? BUY No 94¢ $20 70d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 70d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $18 76d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 94¢ $6 84d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 91¢ $18 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.75 · official $46.75 (match) · 244 history records