Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:05:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
03 0x038a…9caa sports 21 markets active 2d ago coverage 46d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$35 (+28%) realized +$75 · open −$40
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$40
sports 17% +$6
other 7% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 19 +31.5% +19.0% 26% 26% -4.1%
all 19 +31.5% +19.0% 26% 26% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.0% 26% -4.1%
10% +7.6% 26% -13.3%
15% -2.8% 26% -21.6%
20% -12.3% 26% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +134% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$75
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage46d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 55¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 21¢ $41 $1 −$40 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $1 +$1 +61%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $1 +$1 +129%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $2 +$7 +325%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Rockets vs. Lakers May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $1 +$5 +504%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $1 +$10 +980%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 55¢ $1 38h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 23¢ $31 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 23¢ $10 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 65¢ $121 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 26¢ $51 8d
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 23d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 10¢ $1 31d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons SELL Pistons 15¢ $2 33d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons $1 33d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $1 35d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 24¢ $1 37d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 15¢ $1 38d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 17¢ $1 38d
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-07? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 39d
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 39d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 13¢ $1 39d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 15¢ $1 41d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 41d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 23¢ $1 42d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 23¢ $1 42d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY 76ers 19¢ $1 42d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 17¢ $1 43d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets $1 45d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors SELL Cavaliers 75¢ $6 45d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Cavaliers 12¢ $1 45d
Pistons vs. Magic SELL Pistons 100¢ $11 45d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons $1 45d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers $5 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.03 · official $2.03 (match) · 32 history records