Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x038c…bd78 world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-3%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$17
other 19% +$3
sports 3% $0
weather 3% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -2.8% -12.0% 27% 0% -13.0%
≤90d 15 -2.8% -12.0% 27% 0% -13.0%
all 26 -4.4% -13.5% 42% 4% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 4% -11.8%
10% -21.8% 4% -20.2%
15% -29.3% 0% -27.9%
20% -36.3% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage478d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $51 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $68 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $42 −$17 -41%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $18 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will the National Party of Suriname win the most seats in the 2025 Sur Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Apr 07 $17 +$5 +30%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 30 $1 $0 -10%
Israel military action against Iran in March? Mar 29 $18 $0 +1%
Will Kevin O'Leary buy TikTok? Mar 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on March 26? Mar 28 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $19 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $38 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $38 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $19 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $15 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $34 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $17 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 38h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $10 39h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $37 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $37 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $26 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $34 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $9 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $25 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $38 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $6 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records