Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
03 0x038f…7b9d other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$18
politics 43% −$20
sports 3% +$41
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 +1.8% -7.9% 9% 7% -9.6%
all 114 +2.1% -7.7% 11% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 7% -9.5%
10% -16.5% 5% -18.2%
15% -24.6% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×7.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage115d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 31¢ 30¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $262 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $379 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $280 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $228 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,082 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $524 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $263 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $242 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $289 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $453 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $213 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $308 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $260 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $295 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $307 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $300 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 11 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $309 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 09 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 06 $316 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $305 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $296 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $294 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 02 $238 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $293 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $296 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $232 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $299 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $322 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $630 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $14 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $11 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $48 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $48 2h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $26 2h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $26 34h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $48 40h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $48 43h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 10d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 12d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 22d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 22d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $280 23d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $280 24d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 24d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 25d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $262 25d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $262 25d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $241 26d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $241 27d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $243 28d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $243 28d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $263 28d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $263 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.45 · official $23.45 (match) · 352 history records