Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:24:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0391…ef9b sports 248 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$454 (+2%) realized +$522 · open −$68
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%69W / 174L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$2,578now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$127
14 days−$127
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$2,623
other 37% −$2,173
crypto 3% −$5
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -37.2% -43.2% 14% 14% -75.9%
≤30d 8 -45.1% -50.3% 12% 12% -77.2%
≤90d 40 -31.1% -37.6% 20% 20% -5.5%
all 243 -4.4% -13.5% 28% 28% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 28% -6.9%
10% -21.8% 26% -15.8%
15% -29.4% 25% -23.9%
20% -36.3% 23% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$46 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$2,578
Realized+$522
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses69 / 174
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions5
Markets (closed)243 / 248
History coverage149d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $700 $943 +$243 (+35%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $500 $653 +$153 (+31%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $396 $366 −$31 (-8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $700 $350 −$350 (-50%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $350 $267 −$83 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $100 −$72 -72%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $9 $0 -5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3 +$7 +216%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 16 $140 −$140 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 Apr 16 $61 −$61 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Apr 16 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $2,244 +$758 +34%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $350 −$350 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Apr 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 14 $70 +$213 +304%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $150 −$150 -100%
Will FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Apr 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 09 $1 $0 -10%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Apr 09 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $15 −$15 -99%
FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 09 $25 +$72 +289%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5 Apr 09 $20 +$35 +176%
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AZ: O/U 4.5 Apr 09 $20 −$14 -70%
SC Freiburg vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5 Apr 09 $25 −$2 -10%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $1,195 +$542 +45%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 08 $25 −$22 -88%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5 Apr 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 08 $13 −$13 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Apr 08 $34 +$18 +54%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 08 $40 −$21 -51%
Girona FC vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-06? Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Udinese Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5 Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-03? Apr 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Wolves be relegated from the English Premier League after the 202 Apr 03 $11 −$6 -57%
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Apr 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Norway vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Sweden vs. Poland: O/U 4.5 Mar 31 $25 +$99 +397%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-19? Mar 21 $50 +$53 +105%
Will AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Mar 19 $1 +$2 +138%
Aston Villa FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 4.5 Mar 19 $30 −$27 -91%
AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5 Mar 19 $20 +$107 +536%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $255 +$61 +24%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $65 +$4 +6%
Will Galatasaray reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $28 1h
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $4 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $4 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $9 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $9 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 20¢ $10 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $3 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 19d
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 39¢ $330 66d
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $140 66d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 28¢ $420 66d
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 BUY Under $61 67d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 28¢ $111 67d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 31¢ $590 67d
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 54¢ $283 67d
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 13¢ $70 67d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $70 68d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $350 71d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $146 71d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $400 71d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $500 71d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $350 71d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $700 71d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 71d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $250 71d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $300 71d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 29¢ $1,450 71d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? BUY Yes 36¢ $150 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,578.35 · official $2,578.35 (match) · 686 history records