Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0391…6fc9 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% $0
other 31% +$1
politics 16% $0
crypto 10% $0
weather 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 40% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 40% 0% -9.8%
all 23 -0.0% -9.6% 52% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 4% -9.2%
10% -18.2% 4% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage446d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $43 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $14 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $69 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $33 $0 +1%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi May 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 20 $24 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Apr 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $1 $0 +26%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Mar 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on March 31? Mar 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Mar 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 30 $0 $0 -35%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 30 $23 $0 +0%
Sisi out as President of Egypt by March 31? Mar 28 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $32 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $33 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $33 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $33 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $10 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $6 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $4 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $6 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $6 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $30 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $36 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $27 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $6 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $33 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $33 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $33 15d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1 156d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 336d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 336d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 356d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 356d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 376d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 376d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $24 390d
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $25 391d
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $25 391d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.76 · official $31.76 (match) · 65 history records