Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:51:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
03 0x0392…6aa8 other 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%12W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$17
politics 17% −$6
sports 15% +$45
crypto 7% −$2
economics 5% −$1
tech 4% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 58 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 94 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 9% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 6% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×8.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses12 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage128d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $323 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $231 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 22 $286 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 17 $280 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $261 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $303 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $264 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $261 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $272 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $345 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $305 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $556 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $348 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $282 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $280 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 15 $573 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $350 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,178 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $302 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $302 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $363 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 12 $338 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $341 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 11 $706 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $316 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $326 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $332 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $291 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $254 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $899 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $364 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 03 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $267 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 01 $342 $0 -0%
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 31 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $319 $0 -0%
Will Fred Couples win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 30 $324 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $271 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Mar 29 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Mar 27 $310 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 27 $346 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 18d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $231 23d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $231 23d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $286 27d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $286 31d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $280 33d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $280 35d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $261 60d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $261 61d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $303 61d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $303 61d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $264 61d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $264 61d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $261 62d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $261 62d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $272 62d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $272 62d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $345 62d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $345 63d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $305 63d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $305 63d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $258 63d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $258 63d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $348 63d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $348 63d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $332 63d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $332 63d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $282 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.98 · official $42.98 (match) · 279 history records