Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:03:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x0393…14b5 crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 376d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$727 (+9%) realized +$727 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%36W / 28L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$555
7 days+$664
14 days+$827
30 days+$827
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$787
sports 32% −$359
crypto 15% +$400
economics 1% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -7.7% -16.5% 54% 48% -1.2%
≤30d 63 -5.2% -14.2% 57% 52% -0.4%
≤90d 63 -5.2% -14.2% 57% 52% -0.4%
all 64 -6.7% -15.6% 56% 52% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 52% -1.7%
10% -23.6% 41% -11.1%
15% -31.0% 28% -19.7%
20% -37.8% 27% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$58 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

376d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$727
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses36 / 28
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage376d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $167 +$96 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $250 +$65 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,209 +$689 +57%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $300 −$296 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$4 -24%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $785 +$467 +60%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$19 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$9 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $129 +$22 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$20 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $401 +$63 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,351 +$254 +19%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $270 −$267 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $263 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $167 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $250 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,209 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $300 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 177 history records