Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:37:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
03 0x0396…4ae7 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$81 (-24%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +15.5% +4.5% 75% 75% +3.8%
≤30d 4 +15.5% +4.5% 75% 75% +3.8%
≤90d 4 +15.5% +4.5% 75% 75% +3.8%
all 4 +15.5% +4.5% 75% 75% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 75% +3.8%
10% -5.5% 50% -6.2%
15% -14.6% 25% -15.2%
20% -23.0% 25% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$104 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage5d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $115 +$132 +114%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $106 −$104 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 +$7 +32%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 +$16 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $115 2h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $106 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $20 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records