Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:10:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
03 0x0397…3ed4 crypto 132 markets active 3d ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$841 (+13%) realized +$817 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%49W / 75L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$19
14 days+$4
30 days+$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$543
crypto 24% −$170
other 14% +$227
sports 6% +$123
politics 4% +$128
finance 1% −$29
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +20.0% +8.6% 8% 8% -23.9%
≤30d 44 +7.4% -2.8% 9% 9% +24.4%
≤90d 81 -15.7% -23.7% 15% 14% -13.1%
all 124 +7.8% -2.5% 40% 37% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 37% +1.7%
10% -11.8% 33% -8.0%
15% -20.3% 29% -16.9%
20% -28.1% 22% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$17 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$604
Realized+$817
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses49 / 75
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)124 / 132
History coverage108d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $200 $245 +$45 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $160 $133 −$27 (-17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $65 $81 +$16 (+24%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $65 $75 +$10 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $35 $23 −$12 (-34%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$81 +3948%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $4 +$29 +712%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 +$32 +1548%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $304 +$205 +67%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $10 +$21 +207%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 24 $717 +$319 +44%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 22 $94 +$67 +72%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $548 +$244 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $603.98 · official $603.98 (match) · 318 history records