Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:25:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
03 0x0399…dff7 crypto 203 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$277 (+0%) realized +$358 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate73%148W / 54L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$919now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days+$19
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$371
politics 5% −$121
other 3% −$25
world 2% −$37
tech 2% −$105
sports 1% +$1
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +21.4% +9.8% 72% 67% -9.0%
≤30d 85 +7.1% -3.1% 61% 42% -9.1%
≤90d 135 +3.9% -6.0% 68% 27% -9.2%
all 202 -0.4% -9.9% 73% 18% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 18% -9.3%
10% -18.5% 12% -17.9%
15% -26.4% 10% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$919
Realized+$358
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses148 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)202 / 203
History coverage245d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? No 96¢ 89¢ $1,000 $919 −$81 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 $0 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 $0 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +18%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 $0 +26%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 +$2 +176%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 -45%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +38%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 $0 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,042 +$29 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 22 $460 −$30 -6%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 $0 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +26%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +11%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $790 −$8 -1%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $1,003 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 48¢ $1 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $1 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $1 18h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $1 28h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 28h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 29h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 40h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 40h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $1 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 40h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 40h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 40h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $1,042 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 3d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 44¢ $430 4d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 46¢ $460 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $919.09 · official $919.09 (match) · 436 history records