trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 48¢ | 99¢ | $50 | $103 | +$53 (+107%) |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 50¢ | 80¢ | $40 | $64 | +$24 (+60%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? | Yes | 39¢ | 46¢ | $50 | $60 | +$10 (+19%) |
| Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 | Under | 21¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Spurs | 44¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 | Under | 45¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $31 | +$41 | +133% |
| Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | Jun 12 | $62 | +$35 | +56% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 | Jun 10 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 | Jun 10 | $7 | −$7 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $61 | +$40 | +66% |
| Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights | Jun 07 | $102 | +$54 | +53% |
| Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | Jun 07 | $31 | −$1 | -4% |
| Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 | Jun 07 | $30 | −$19 | -61% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 07 | $37 | −$15 | -40% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jun 07 | $51 | −$51 | -100% |
| Hurricanes vs. Canadiens | Jun 07 | $102 | −$31 | -31% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Jun 07 | $41 | −$41 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Jun 07 | $32 | −$32 | -100% |
| Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? | Jun 07 | $102 | −$102 | -100% |
| Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? | Jun 07 | $41 | −$41 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $30 | +$54 | +181% |
| Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | Jun 03 | $102 | +$95 | +93% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $114 | +$685 | +600% |
| Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? | May 27 | $100 | +$114 | +114% |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | May 26 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 26 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 26 | $11 | +$1 | +6% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 26 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 26 | $35 | −$9 | -27% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 26 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Pistons | May 26 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 26 | $45 | +$20 | +44% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | May 26 | $28 | −$28 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 26 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 26 | $37 | −$37 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | May 26 | $43 | −$43 | -100% |
| Ducks vs. Golden Knights | May 26 | $41 | −$41 | -100% |
| Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-05-15? | May 26 | $28 | −$28 | -100% |
| Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) | May 26 | $41 | −$41 | -100% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | May 26 | $31 | −$31 | -100% |
| Will Rennes finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings? | May 26 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? | May 26 | $150 | −$150 | -100% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | May 18 | $145 | −$86 | -59% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 18 | $29 | −$29 | -100% |
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $100 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 14 | $17 | +$43 | +258% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 13 | $25 | +$1 | +3% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | May 03 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? | May 02 | $82 | −$82 | -100% |
| Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-30? | May 02 | $51 | +$41 | +82% |
| Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-30? | Apr 30 | $20 | +$8 | +41% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? | Apr 28 | $550 | +$799 | +145% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Apr 28 | $82 | −$82 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 16 | -39.2% | -45.0% | 25% | 25% | -35.1% |
| ≤30d | 43 | -25.8% | -32.9% | 28% | 23% | -5.8% |
| ≤90d | 95 | -22.0% | -29.4% | 32% | 27% | +3.3% |
| all | 261 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 39% | 36% | +5.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.4% | 36% | +5.9% |
| 10% | -18.0% | 35% | -4.3% |
| 15% | -26.0% | 34% | -13.5% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 32% | -22.0% |