Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
03 0x039b…9b6c other 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$222 (+8%) realized +$273 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate63%56W / 33L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$588now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$174
7 days+$245
14 days+$172
30 days+$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$119
world 25% +$16
politics 16% +$3
finance 6% +$26
tech 6% +$29
crypto 5% −$47
sports 3% +$7
culture 2% +$25
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +20.2% +8.8% 82% 71% +23.5%
≤30d 84 +4.6% -5.3% 61% 56% -0.2%
≤90d 89 +29.0% +16.7% 63% 58% +2.4%
all 89 +29.0% +16.7% 63% 58% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.7% 58% +2.4%
10% +5.5% 47% -7.4%
15% -4.7% 38% -16.3%
20% -14.0% 26% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$588
Realized+$273
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses56 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions42
Markets (closed)89 / 129
History coverage38d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $65 $61 −$4 (-6%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 No 55¢ 87¢ $29 $46 +$17 (+57%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 70¢ $29 $37 +$8 (+26%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 68¢ 99¢ $22 $32 +$10 (+45%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 75¢ 76¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 71¢ 97¢ $21 $29 +$8 (+37%)
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $21 $25 +$3 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 81¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 57¢ 63¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+11%)
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 82¢ 92¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+12%)
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? No 88¢ 100¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+14%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 77¢ 98¢ $8 $11 +$2 (+27%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-15%)
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 26 $185 +$148 +80%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 26 $60 +$26 +43%
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 25 $41 +$12 +30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 24 $18 +$7 +40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 24 $44 +$19 +44%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $25 −$8 -30%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 23 $14 −$4 -26%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $26 +$3 +12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $42 +$5 +12%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 23 $17 +$4 +24%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 23 $12 +$2 +16%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 22 $25 −$2 -7%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 22 $32 +$13 +41%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 21 $95 +$8 +9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $23 +$4 +19%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 20 $7 +$4 +62%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $20 +$4 +18%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 19 $41 −$19 -46%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $55 −$34 -62%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $29 −$23 -77%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $8 +$10 +123%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $17 −$7 -40%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 17 $15 +$4 +28%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $17 +$6 +33%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 16 $9 +$13 +137%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 16 $39 +$20 +50%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $26 +$6 +23%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $29 +$18 +62%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 15 $32 −$11 -33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $16 −$5 -33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 15 $16 +$7 +46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $26 +$11 +44%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $11 +$2 +14%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $11 +$5 +50%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -9%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 12 $14 −$6 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +66%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY Yes 25¢ $29 22m
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 28¢ $68 25m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $24 27m
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 30¢ $11 1h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 1h
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $20 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $14 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 72¢ $9 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 72¢ $0 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 72¢ $0 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 72¢ $0 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 72¢ $0 15h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $6 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 57¢ $26 20h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $26 20h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 56¢ $49 20h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL No 85¢ $13 23h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL No 85¢ $1 23h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL No 85¢ $5 23h
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 29h
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 29h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 55¢ $43 29h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $33 30h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL Yes 58¢ $13 30h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL Yes 48¢ $13 30h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 70¢ $18 34h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 62¢ $16 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $588.17 · official $588.17 (match) · 500 history records