Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

03 0x039b…0863 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$28 (-2%) realized −$28 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate53%10W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$72per market

Trades / day4.8pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)-10.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-1.0%	-10.5%	53%	42%	-15.0%
≤30d	19	-1.0%	-10.5%	53%	42%	-15.0%
≤90d	19	-1.0%	-10.5%	53%	42%	-15.0%
all	19	-1.0%	-10.5%	53%	42%	-15.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.5%	42%	-15.0%
10%	-19.0%	32%	-23.2%
15%	-26.8%	21%	-30.6%
20%	-34.0%	21%	-37.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 38% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +14% → late -15% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$19 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.5 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$28

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses10 / 9

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage8d

Avg bet$72

Trades / day4.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$10	$0	-1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$123	−$9	-7%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$241	+$8	+3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$284	−$19	-7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$369	−$10	-3%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$11	−$11	-100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$7	−$7	-100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)	Jun 19	$84	−$84	-100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$28	+$17	+60%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$10	+$10	+108%
RS Berkane vs. OC Safi: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$14	−$14	-100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$18	−$18	-100%
Patrik Schick: 2+ goals	Jun 18	$23	+$2	+11%
Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$9	+$11	+124%
RS Berkane vs. OC Safi: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$16	+$4	+26%
Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$16	+$4	+27%
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 4.5	Jun 18	$18	+$2	+10%
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$9	+$11	+119%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5)	Jun 14	$134	+$16	+12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	50¢	$10	2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$115	2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	13¢	$249	2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	14¢	$265	2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$359	2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$10	11h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$11	11h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	62¢	$28	12h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	12h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)	BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina	84¢	$59	12h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)	BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina	84¢	$25	12h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	35¢	$7	12h
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	91¢	$18	17h
Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	44¢	$9	17h
RS Berkane vs. OC Safi: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	70¢	$11	17h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$35	17h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$66	17h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$71	17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$95	17h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$23	20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$66	20h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$71	20h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$95	20h
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$9	20h
RS Berkane vs. OC Safi: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	79¢	$16	20h
RS Berkane vs. OC Safi: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	69¢	$3	20h
Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	79¢	$16	20h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	60¢	$18	20h
Patrik Schick: 2+ goals	BUY No	90¢	$23	21h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$65	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records