Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

03 0x039c…c0fb politics 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d

RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$67per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 248d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-8.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	2	+1.3%	-8.4%	50%	0%	-9.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.4%	0%	-9.0%
10%	-17.1%	0%	-17.7%
15%	-25.1%	0%	-25.7%
20%	-32.5%	0%	-33.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$0 · ×8.52 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×8.52 per $1 lost it wins $8.52

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage

Net worth$204

Realized+$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage248d

Avg bet$67

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	99¢	99¢	$189	$189	−$0 (-0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	95¢	97¢	$15	$15	+$0 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?	Dec 16	$15	$0	+3%
Will Toshimitsu Motegi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?	Oct 16	$49	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$189	1h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	BUY No	95¢	$15	187d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?	SELL No	99¢	$16	187d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?	BUY No	97¢	$15	227d
Will Toshimitsu Motegi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?	SELL No	100¢	$49	248d
Will Toshimitsu Motegi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?	BUY No	100¢	$49	248d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.85 · official $203.85 (match) · 6 history records