Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x039c…0450 crypto 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24 (-2%) realized −$41 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%32W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$90
14 days+$17
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$147
other 31% −$67
sports 18% +$128
economics 2% −$14
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +16.6% +5.5% 36% 36% +15.7%
≤30d 75 -25.6% -32.7% 29% 29% -21.1%
≤90d 75 -25.6% -32.7% 29% 29% -21.1%
all 99 -17.9% -25.7% 32% 32% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 32% -19.6%
10% -32.8% 31% -27.3%
15% -39.3% 31% -34.3%
20% -45.2% 29% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$10 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses32 / 67
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions10
Markets (closed)99 / 109
History coverage161d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $30 $57 +$27 (+90%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Ireland 18¢ 32¢ $31 $54 +$23 (+75%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+5%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $31 $29 −$2 (-6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $34 $29 −$5 (-15%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 33¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $32 $17 −$14 (-45%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-44%)
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $8 −$4 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -47%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 +$45 +290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -95%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $14 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$75 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $23 +$48 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$25 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 +$59 +383%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 08 $36 −$20 -55%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $20 −$19 -98%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 07 $21 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 07 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 07 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 07 $7 +$10 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 04 $11 +$12 +113%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Rublev May 31 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 30 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 30 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 30 $31 +$75 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 29 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $9 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 28 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 18¢ $31 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $43 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 2¢ $2 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 73¢ $72 3d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 33¢ $20 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 12¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $48 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $22 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 4d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $33 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.55 · official $295.55 (match) · 293 history records