Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:25:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03a0…5396 crypto 216 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (209 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$76 (+1%) realized +$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%77W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day208.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$214
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (209 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 -15.6% -23.6% 36% 32% -12.5%
≤30d 216 -15.6% -23.6% 36% 32% -12.5%
≤90d 216 -15.6% -23.6% 36% 32% -12.5%
all 216 -15.6% -23.6% 36% 32% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover208.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 32% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 30% -20.9%
15% -37.6% 26% -28.5%
20% -43.7% 23% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$26 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses77 / 139
Open positions0
Markets (closed)216 / 216
History coverage4d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day208.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 216 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$38 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$84 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$7 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$87 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$19 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$17 +35%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$87 +223%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $68 +$35 +51%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$15 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$17 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$18 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$14 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $134 +$202 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$18 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $20 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $19 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $19 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $125 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $25 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.31 · official $19.31 (match) · 1060 history records