Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x03a7…dc41 crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 643d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$678now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$3
sports 13% +$1
politics 12% $0
economics 6% +$1
other 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 19 -26.2% -33.2% 68% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -39.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -45.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -50.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

643d coverage
Net worth$678
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage643d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $678 $678 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Jun 28 $314 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 22 $314 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 17 $314 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Jan 22 $297 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? May 31 $299 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 28 $303 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6000 by February 28 2025? Mar 07 $304 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $294 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Jan 21 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Chris Olave be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 02 $298 +$1 +0%
Warriors vs. Grizzlies Dec 20 $320 $0 +0%
Will Dylan Raiola win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 15 $0 $0 -100%
Spurs vs. Suns Dec 04 $320 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win New York Presidential Election Nov 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Texas US Senate Election? Nov 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump tweet 35-39 times Nov 15-22? Nov 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Marina Helena win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? Oct 08 $303 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in Q3 2024? Oct 03 $300 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $678 1h
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $314 98d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $314 131d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $314 157d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $297 285d
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $299 457d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $303 472d
Will Ethereum hit $6000 by February 28 2025? BUY No 100¢ $304 493d
Will Solana dip to $100 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $294 515d
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? BUY No 100¢ $299 534d
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $298 549d
Warriors vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 100¢ $320 555d
Spurs vs. Suns BUY Suns 100¢ $320 571d
Will Chris Olave be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 582d
Will Trump tweet 35-39 times Nov 15-22? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 585d
Will Dylan Raiola win the Heisman Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 586d
Will Marina Helena win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $303 632d
Ethereum all time high in Q3 2024? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 641d
Will a candidate from another party win Texas US Senate Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 642d
Ethereum all time high in Q3 2024? BUY No 100¢ $300 642d
Will a candidate from another party win New York Presidential Election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 642d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $677.98 · official $677.98 (match) · 40 history records