Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:51:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x03ab…472b
sports · 30 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$899 -33%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$888 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$415
Realized−$888
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses6 / 18
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions6
Markets (closed)24 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day65.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 6 History 24 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$888
7 days−$888
14 days−$888
30 days−$888
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Over 55¢ 55¢ $245 $245 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $67 $64 −$3 (-5%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Yes $35 $30 −$5 (-14%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 16¢ 14¢ $34 $29 −$4 (-12%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 26¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 19¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 33¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Juan Estevez 24¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 20¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ $193 $0 −$193 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $304 −$299 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Jun 12 $65 −$56 -86%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $583 −$199 -34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $121 +$66 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $31 +$2 +7%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $161 +$35 +22%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $62 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $60 +$88 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $91 −$79 -87%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $165 +$5 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $196 −$193 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $196 +$65 +33%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 62% −$302
other 27% −$329
crypto 10% −$268
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $69 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes $36 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $195 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes $21 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $54 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $34 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $5 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND SELL $9 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 53¢ $38 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 53¢ $22 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 53¢ $213 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 53¢ $1 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 53¢ $58 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 53¢ $44 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 55¢ $1 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 55¢ $7 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $583 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $15 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND BUY 15¢ $65 5h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova SELL Iva Jovic 98¢ $3 7h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova SELL Iva Jovic 98¢ $185 7h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 24¢ $33 7h
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS $3 8h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 37¢ $20 8h
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery SELL Robin Montgomery 98¢ $196 8h
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 20¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 22¢ $31 8h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 73¢ $101 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-64.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -60.5% -64.3% 25% 17% -44.7%
≤30d 24 -60.5% -64.3% 25% 17% -44.7%
≤90d 24 -60.5% -64.3% 25% 17% -44.7%
all 24 -60.5% -64.3% 25% 17% -44.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover65.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -64.3% 17% -44.7%
10% ← realistic here -67.7% 12% -50.0%
15% -70.8% 8% -54.8%
20% -73.7% 8% -59.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.94 · official $414.94 (match) · 78 history records