Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:43:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03ac…4f55 sports 113 markets active 1d ago coverage 49d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23,059 (+8%) realized +$23,059 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate52%59W / 54L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$2,465per market
Trades / day68.2pace
Fees−$4,420est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$8,052
politics 25% +$9
crypto 5% +$105
finance 4% +$19
world 3% +$19
other 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -52.7% -57.2% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 70 -16.7% -24.7% 50% 27% -12.0%
≤90d 113 +7.9% -2.4% 52% 33% -6.9%
all 113 +7.9% -2.4% 52% 33% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 33% -6.9%
10% -11.7% 28% -15.8%
15% ← realistic here -20.3% 27% -23.9%
20% -28.1% 23% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$820) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
16.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$511 vs −$422 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23,059
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses59 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$4,420
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$2,465
Trades / day68.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Jun 27 $126 −$14 -11%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $45,037 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 23 $204 −$204 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $23,610 −$555 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $30,732 −$421 -1%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4,846 −$349 -7%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $8,656 +$90 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $11,438 +$66 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $9,638 +$59 +1%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $653 +$307 +47%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3,726 +$81 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $24 +$2 +7%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 13 $507 −$507 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 13 $512 −$512 -100%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 13 $139 +$21 +15%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $510 +$490 +96%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 12 $499 +$4 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $500 +$33 +7%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 09 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 09 $510 −$510 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $508 +$556 +109%
UFC Fight Night: Giga Chikadze vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, P Jun 09 $170 +$11 +6%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 08 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 08 $512 −$512 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 07 $48 −$41 -86%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 07 $503 −$503 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 07 $500 −$500 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $1,618 −$1,303 -80%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 07 $1,540 −$760 -49%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $10,029 +$95 +1%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 07 $500 +$850 +170%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $1,240 +$660 +53%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $4,958 +$50 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 06 $749 +$30 +4%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 06 $502 +$928 +185%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 06 $2,699 +$84 +3%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 06 $125 +$1 +1%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 06 $501 +$519 +104%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 06 $501 +$749 +150%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 04 $503 +$787 +156%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,924 +$7 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $14,880 +$105 +1%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 03 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? SELL Yes 44¢ $69 35h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY No 16¢ $16 42h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 2d
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 2d
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2d
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY No 46¢ $8 2d
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY No 46¢ $8 2d
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY No 46¢ $3 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $204 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 27¢ $30 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 27¢ $0 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 27¢ $313 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 27¢ $10 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 36¢ $1 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 36¢ $0 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 36¢ $7 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 41¢ $10 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 41¢ $183 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 41¢ $25 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 41¢ $5 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 41¢ $31 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 41¢ $0 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 41¢ $62 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 41¢ $164 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 41¢ $100 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 41¢ $0 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 41¢ $5 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 41¢ $9 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 41¢ $76 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 41¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records