trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -24.0% | -31.3% | 75% | 0% | -84.0% |
| all | 13 | -14.5% | -22.6% | 85% | 0% | -71.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.6% | 0% | -71.7% |
| 10% | -30.0% | 0% | -74.4% |
| 15% | -36.8% | 0% | -76.9% |
| 20% | -43.0% | 0% | -79.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? | No | 61¢ | 60¢ | $293 | $290 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? | Jun 25 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 26 | $35 | −$34 | -98% |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Apr 21 | $291 | −$288 | -99% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on March 24 | Apr 21 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? | Apr 21 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the March meeting? | Apr 21 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 25, 2026? | Apr 21 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Bill Clinton charged by March 31? | Apr 21 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 | Feb 04 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan | Feb 04 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google reach $420 in January? | Feb 04 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of January 5 above $215? | Jan 14 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook? | Jan 08 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? | BUY No | 61¢ | $296 | 1h |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | BUY Spurs | 38¢ | $35 | 30d |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | BUY Rockets | 64¢ | $291 | 65d |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on March 24 | BUY No | 100¢ | $11 | 94d |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? | BUY No | 100¢ | $10 | 97d |
| Bill Clinton charged by March 31? | BUY No | 98¢ | $13 | 103d |
| Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the March meeting? | BUY Yes | 98¢ | $12 | 112d |
| Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 25, 2026? | BUY No | 100¢ | $12 | 118d |
| Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? | BUY No | 96¢ | $11 | 134d |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan | BUY No | 100¢ | $11 | 147d |
| Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 | BUY Yes | 97¢ | $10 | 150d |
| Will Google reach $420 in January? | BUY No | 100¢ | $13 | 162d |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of January 5 above $215? | BUY No | 100¢ | $24 | 168d |
| Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook? | BUY Yes | 100¢ | $18 | 181d |