Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:14:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03b5…c585 weather 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-11%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%31W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day46.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 68% −$111
crypto 27% +$35
sports 4% −$11
other 1% −$4
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -20.9% -28.4% 34% 29% -23.3%
≤30d 90 -20.9% -28.4% 34% 29% -23.3%
≤90d 90 -20.9% -28.4% 34% 29% -23.3%
all 90 -20.9% -28.4% 34% 29% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 29% -23.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 24% -30.7%
15% -41.5% 22% -37.4%
20% -47.2% 18% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses31 / 59
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day46.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 28? No 55¢ 56¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 28? No 55¢ 57¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 27 $10 −$3 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 27 $20 +$14 +72%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 27 $15 +$11 +75%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 27 $5 −$3 -52%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $41 −$35 -85%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 25? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 27 $30 −$28 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $25 −$15 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27? Jun 27 $38 −$32 -82%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 25? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 24? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 26 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 26 $19 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 26 $10 +$5 +45%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 26 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$18 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$10 +100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 26 $10 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$19 +92%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 24? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 24? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 26 $5 +$12 +221%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 25 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$12 +396%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +117%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 25 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 24 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 24 $5 −$3 -57%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun SELL No 13¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun SELL No 20¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun SELL No 36¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 100¢ $34 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 24¢ $3 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 24¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun SELL No 24¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 98¢ $27 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 59¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 32¢ $2 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? SELL No 1¢ $1 8h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun SELL No 1¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 55¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 58¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 58¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 58¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 58¢ $3 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 10¢ $16 9h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 12¢ $4 9h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 12¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL No 61¢ $16 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 10¢ $4 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 9¢ $1 9h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 12¢ $1 9h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 12¢ $5 9h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 12¢ $1 9h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 12¢ $1 9h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 12¢ $1 9h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 12¢ $1 9h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun SELL No 3¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.53 · official $15.26 (match) · 334 history records