Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
03 0x03b8…b4ae sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19,314 (-55%) realized −$19,042 · open −$272
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,343per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$604est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$928now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,497
7 days+$2,971
14 days+$2,933
30 days−$13,802
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$21,226
other 13% +$1,396
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +42.5% +29.0% 73% 67% +31.4%
≤30d 20 +17.9% +6.7% 60% 55% -56.6%
≤90d 22 +7.2% -3.0% 55% 50% -63.4%
all 23 +2.6% -7.2% 52% 48% -64.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 48% -64.3%
10% -16.1% 48% -67.7%
15% -24.2% 39% -70.8%
20% -31.6% 17% -73.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$1,106) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -42% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$273 vs −$2,077 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$928
Realized−$19,042
Unrealized−$272
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$604
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage148d
Avg bet$1,343
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $400 $425 +$25 (+6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $321 +$21 (+7%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 12¢ $500 $182 −$318 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 +$144 +140%
76ers vs. Heat Jun 17 $333 +$302 +91%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $2,333 +$825 +35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,106 +$269 +24%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$52 -25%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 +$9 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $510 +$227 +44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$328 +320%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $204 +$390 +191%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $306 +$23 +8%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $303 +$132 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,054 +$404 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $316 −$260 -82%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $505 +$222 +44%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $10,005 −$9,800 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $3,233 −$774 -24%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $6,227 −$6,161 -99%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $508 −$500 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $4,500 −$4,467 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Jazz Jan 21 $1,100 −$800 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $306 42m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $204 43m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $521 52m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $32 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $510 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $215 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,005 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $308 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $153 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $213 26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 28h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $737 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $510 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $309 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $2,218 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $1,316 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 43¢ $939 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,016 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $430 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 88¢ $594 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $102 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $318 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $927.88 · official $927.88 (match) · 84 history records