Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:43:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03bc…530c other 1168 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 188d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,008 (-1%) realized −$848 · open −$160
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate53%646W / 566L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$754
7 days−$684
14 days−$861
30 days−$760
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$583
tech 19% −$60
world 7% −$79
sports 4% +$91
crypto 2% +$4
finance 1% −$56
politics 1% −$31
economics 0% −$11
culture 0% −$7
weather 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -64.4% -67.8% 19% 18% -48.0%
≤30d 227 -27.1% -34.1% 35% 29% -15.5%
≤90d 696 -15.1% -23.2% 46% 32% -12.4%
all 1212 -12.1% -20.5% 53% 31% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 31% -10.7%
10% -28.1% 27% -19.3%
15% -35.1% 23% -27.1%
20% -41.4% 19% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$479
Realized−$848
Unrealized−$160
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses646 / 566
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1212 / 1168
History coverage189d ⚠
Avg bet$81
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 1212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $245 $139 −$106 (-43%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $71 $74 +$2 (+4%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-5%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 86¢ 86¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 40¢ 40¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-3%)
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+36%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $39 $12 −$27 (-69%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 81¢ 85¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $14 $1 −$13 (-93%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-93%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 6% or more? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 432 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Celta Vigo vs. Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Jun 28 $10 −$20 -200%
Will Luxembourg win on 2025-11-14? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Burnley FC vs. Arsenal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-08? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Poland win on 2025-11-14? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-14? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Knicks Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Saski Baskonia vs. FC Bayern Munchen Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08? Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Lille OSC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-14? Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Athletic Club vs. Real Madrid: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Manchester City vs. Leeds United end in a draw? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-12-05? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-11-29? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Spurs Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Altmaier vs Casper Ruud Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-10? Jun 28 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-11-05? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-20? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on No Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-12-14? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Finland win on 2025-11-14? Jun 28 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 12? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-01? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Juventus win on 2025-11-08? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Arthur Cazaux Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07? Jun 28 $33 −$31 -95%
Rayo Vallecano vs. Real Madrid: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Magic vs. Hornets Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
AC Milan vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Pelicans vs. Clippers Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 13? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC København win on 2025-12-10? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 32m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $30 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 40¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $28 11h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $43 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 90¢ $53 25h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $20 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 31h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $20 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 82¢ $70 45h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $25 47h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $25 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 96¢ $38 2d
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu BUY Cezar Cretu 63¢ $2 2d
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Nuno Borges 56¢ $2 2d
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes BUY Inaki Montes 88¢ $4 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 66¢ $2 2d
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 2d
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 90¢ $37 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.54 · official $478.54 (match) · 3500 history records