Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03bd…a611 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$26
world 37% −$4
sports 9% +$1
tech 3% +$24
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.6% -12.7% 43% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 16 -1.3% -10.7% 31% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 16 -1.3% -10.7% 31% 0% -10.3%
all 42 +4.5% -5.4% 33% 10% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 10% -10.1%
10% -14.5% 7% -18.7%
15% -22.7% 5% -26.6%
20% -30.3% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage482d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $16 −$1 -7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $8 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $39 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $4 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Jun 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Will United States win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 27 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 23 $6 $0 +3%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 22 $3 −$1 -30%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'Metallic Rouge' win Crunchyroll's Best Original Anime Award for May 20 $1 $0 -28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 18 $34 +$3 +8%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 31 $33 $0 +0%
More Epstein files released in March? Mar 31 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on March 31? Mar 29 $35 $0 -0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Mar 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Kevin O'Leary buy TikTok? Mar 28 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $34 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $34 $0 -0%
Celtics vs. Pistons Mar 20 $16 +$2 +12%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March? Mar 20 $9 +$23 +270%
UIC vs. Northern Iowa Feb 26 $9 $0 +0%
Colorado State vs. Air Force Feb 25 $10 −$1 -7%
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 25 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $16 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $19 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $0 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $16 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $4 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $34 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $7 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $6 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records