Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:15:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x03bf…1eb4 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,119 (+113%) realized +$2,119 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$840
14 days+$217
30 days+$2,135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$1,411
other 16% +$699
crypto 5% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +215.3% +185.2% 100% 100% +201.6%
≤30d 8 +34.6% +21.8% 38% 38% +112.9%
≤90d 9 +19.7% +8.3% 33% 33% +111.6%
all 12 -10.3% -18.8% 25% 25% +105.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 25% +105.8%
10% -26.6% 25% +86.1%
15% -33.7% 25% +68.1%
20% -40.2% 25% +51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +134% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +128% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$926 vs −$77 · ×11.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.99 per $1 lost it wins $3.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized+$2,119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage599d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 44¢ $192 $178 −$14 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $44 $58 +$14 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $70 +$130 +186%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $290 +$710 +245%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $45 −$44 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $532 −$520 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $563 +$1,937 +344%
Pacers vs. Mavericks May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Mavericks vs. Warriors Nov 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Nov 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Suns vs. Mavericks Nov 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $195 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $70 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 29¢ $290 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 8d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 48¢ $48 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $10 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $31 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 83¢ $10 15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 37¢ $10 15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 38¢ $10 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 20d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 20d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $138 20d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 15¢ $211 29d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 22¢ $307 34d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 22¢ $256 34d
Mavericks vs. Warriors BUY Mavericks 44¢ $19 591d
Mavericks vs. Nuggets BUY Mavericks 46¢ $10 593d
Suns vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 39¢ $15 595d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.50 · official $235.50 (match) · 52 history records