Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:50:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
03 0x03c0…15f2 crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+3%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate94%32W / 2L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +3.4% -6.4% 94% 44% -6.7%
≤30d 34 +3.4% -6.4% 94% 44% -6.7%
≤90d 34 +3.4% -6.4% 94% 44% -6.7%
all 34 +3.4% -6.4% 94% 44% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 44% -6.7%
10% -15.4% 0% -15.6%
15% -23.5% 0% -23.7%
20% -31.0% 0% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$25 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses32 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage3d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 91¢ 92¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $23 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $19 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$3 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $24 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $28 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $28 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $22 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $24 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $28 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $23 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.14 · official $25.14 (match) · 73 history records