Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:26:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03c1…3e98 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$267 (-17%) realized −$255 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$269
30 days−$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$27
world 17% −$265
crypto 16% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.4% -15.3% 0% 0% -15.3%
≤30d 37 -10.4% -18.9% 38% 27% -43.0%
≤90d 37 -10.4% -18.9% 38% 27% -43.0%
all 37 -10.4% -18.9% 38% 27% -43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 27% -43.0%
10% -26.7% 24% -48.5%
15% -33.8% 19% -53.4%
20% -40.3% 19% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$535
Realized−$255
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Open positions8
Markets (closed)37 / 45
History coverage17d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 24¢ 24¢ $502 $508 +$6 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 14¢ 10¢ $18 $12 −$6 (-32%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? No 19¢ 10¢ $18 $10 −$8 (-45%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $195 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $19 +$28 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$5 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $17 −$16 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $37 +$31 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $13 +$19 +146%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $21 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $265 −$265 -100%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1 $0 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1 $0 -8%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1 $0 -8%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -4%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2 $0 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1 $0 -3%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $14 33m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $10 34m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $10 34m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $10 35m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $10 35m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $10 35m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $10 35m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $10 35m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $11 58m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $41 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $21 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $21 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $21 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $10 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $10 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $10 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $10 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $10 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $10 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $31 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $103 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $103 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $18 2h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $19 2h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $18 2h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $183 21h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $117 21h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $104 21h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $104 21h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $534.54 · official $534.54 (match) · 150 history records