Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:59:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
03 0x03c1…b5e2 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,019 (+4%) realized +$1,019 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate83%25W / 5L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$818per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$317
7 days+$1,124
14 days+$1,132
30 days+$1,132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +2.1% -7.6% 84% 8% -5.2%
≤30d 30 +1.9% -7.8% 83% 7% -5.4%
≤90d 30 +1.9% -7.8% 83% 7% -5.4%
all 30 +1.9% -7.8% 83% 7% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 7% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 7% -14.4%
15% -24.7% 3% -22.7%
20% -32.1% 3% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,300) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$32 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.99 per $1 lost it wins $7.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,019
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses25 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage9d
Avg bet$818
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $595 +$24 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,998 +$64 +3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $2,454 +$97 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1,566 +$34 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2,000 +$60 +3%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2,000 +$62 +3%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $1,700 +$36 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $61 −$59 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,700 −$54 -3%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,300 +$39 +3%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $659 +$56 +8%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,200 +$37 +3%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $644 +$19 +3%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $434 +$9 +2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,000 +$30 +3%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $247 +$7 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $150 +$3 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $626 +$405 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $799 +$232 +29%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $188 +$18 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $700 +$22 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $164 +$5 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $48 +$2 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $359 −$18 -5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $930 −$5 -0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $394 +$12 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $196 +$10 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $196 +$10 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $194 −$26 -13%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $91 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $37 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $11 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $808 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $162 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $32 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $7 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $34 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $92 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $30 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $14 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $562 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $15 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $100 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,551 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 96¢ $595 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $2,454 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 98¢ $109 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 98¢ $1,457 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,060 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 97¢ $2,000 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $454 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $1,492 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $53 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $61 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 98¢ $88 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 98¢ $79 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 98¢ $286 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records