Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:51:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

03 0x03c2…c612 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$131 (+24%) realized +$140 · open −$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip

Net edge+34%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$110per market

Trades / day1.8pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+34.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+48.2%	+34.1%	100%	100%	+37.5%
≤30d	3	+48.2%	+34.1%	100%	100%	+37.5%
≤90d	3	+48.2%	+34.1%	100%	100%	+37.5%
all	3	+48.2%	+34.1%	100%	100%	+37.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+34.1%	100%	+37.5%
10%	+21.3%	100%	+24.3%
15%	+9.6%	100%	+12.3%
20%	-1.2%	33%	+1.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 78% · top 2 96% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +52% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +48% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$40 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$296

Realized+$140

Unrealized−$9

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage3d

Avg bet$110

Trades / day1.8

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	95¢	94¢	$200	$197	−$3 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	42¢	40¢	$105	$99	−$6 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$52	+$21	+40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$11	+$5	+49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 21	$168	+$94	+56%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$111	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	95¢	$208	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$52	12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$158	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$11	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$11	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.91 · official $295.91 (match) · 9 history records