Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:21:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
03 0x03c5…5f61 sports 221 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,449 (-8%) realized −$11,670 · open +$221
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%84W / 132L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$641per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$2,038est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$873
7 days−$1,917
14 days−$13,943
30 days−$12,592
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$21,097
other 9% +$8,726
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +0.1% -9.4% 39% 39% -14.2%
≤30d 216 -5.2% -14.2% 39% 39% -17.8%
≤90d 216 -5.2% -14.2% 39% 39% -17.8%
all 216 -5.2% -14.2% 39% 39% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 39% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 38% -25.6%
15% -29.9% 38% -32.8%
20% -36.8% 36% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$715) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$752 vs −$574 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$2,500
Realized−$11,670
Unrealized+$221
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses84 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$2,038
Open positions5
Markets (closed)216 / 221
History coverage29d
Avg bet$641
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 86¢ 87¢ $1,000 $1,013 +$13 (+1%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 53¢ 100¢ $272 $513 +$241 (+89%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 53¢ 100¢ $265 $500 +$235 (+89%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Czechia 27¢ 28¢ $466 $474 +$9 (+2%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 53¢ $277 $0 −$276 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $54 +$64 +119%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $131 −$128 -98%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $130 +$82 +63%
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$198 -98%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $488 +$654 +134%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2,033 +$3,220 +158%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 16 $81 −$79 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $430 −$424 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $601 +$1,241 +206%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $734 −$720 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $2,840 −$2,782 -98%
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $500 −$7 -2%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) Jun 16 $57 −$56 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $3,423 +$3,598 +105%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 15 $1,978 −$1,948 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $632 −$620 -98%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus Jun 15 $465 −$457 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $52 +$68 +133%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $512 +$1,231 +240%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,808 +$285 +16%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 14 $1,166 −$1,160 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $859 −$846 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $174 −$172 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $304 −$298 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $149 −$148 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $233 −$230 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,389 −$2,341 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3,368 +$3,268 +97%
Overwatch: Geekay Esports vs Al Qadsiah (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Jun 13 $181 +$333 +184%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1,708 −$1,680 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $852 −$839 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $926 −$907 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $932 −$911 -98%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $286 −$281 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $449 +$729 +162%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 12 $1,413 −$1,392 -98%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $165 +$355 +215%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $342 −$335 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,408 +$1,967 +140%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $74 +$140 +189%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $246 −$242 -98%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $150 −$8 -5%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 3? Jun 12 $458 +$522 +114%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $69 +$150 +216%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $155 +$192 +124%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $445 +$443 +100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $179 −$3 -2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1,219 −$1,201 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $203 −$199 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $476 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 86¢ $1,004 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $281 11h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $276 11h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $269 11h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 24¢ $49 16h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 11¢ $3 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $5 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $20 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $51 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $51 17h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 45¢ $54 19h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 30¢ $130 24h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 23¢ $61 30h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 23¢ $62 30h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 23¢ $38 31h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 23¢ $41 31h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $488 35h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 34¢ $81 35h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $430 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $601 39h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $734 42h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $2,840 44h
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 50¢ $500 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $2,033 2d
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) BUY Gentle Mates 23¢ $57 2d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 48¢ $1,422 2d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 48¢ $2,001 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,978 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $632 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,500.27 · official $2,500.27 (match) · 411 history records