Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:58:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x03c6…ce0a
sports · 277 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$244
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses17 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions252
Markets (closed)25 / 277
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day294.0
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 252 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tessa Brockmann vs. Alycia Parks: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 25¢ $1 $12 +$11 (+1128%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$1 (+50%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+48%)
Set 1 Winner: Montgomery vs Krejcikova Montgomery 36¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Metizport 37¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? No 71¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 72¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? No 30¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Eternal Fire Academy (BO3) - TESFED League Playoffs Eternal Fire Academy 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 47¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 37¢ 39¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Galions 67¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 51¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 54¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Galions 67¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Under 70¢ 73¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Galions 76¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Ben Shelton 46¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +64%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 14 $1 +$1 +74%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +145%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +61%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +64%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +194%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +64%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% +$3
other 35% −$8
crypto 5% −$1
world 3% −$1
politics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis BUY David Jorda Sanchis 40¢ $1 5m
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 52¢ $1 7m
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $1 9m
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Max Schoenhaus 16¢ $1 12m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 12m
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 13m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 13m
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 34¢ $1 15m
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $1 16m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 79¢ $1 18m
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $1 22m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire $1 23m
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes $1 25m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 31m
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 33m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro BUY Nuclear TigeRES 72¢ $1 35m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 35m
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 25¢ $1 36m
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY LYON 35¢ $1 39m
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes $1 40m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 55¢ $1 40m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 40m
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 40m
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 21¢ $1 47m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 53¢ $1 48m
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 48m
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL Clutchain 99¢ $2 48m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $1 49m
Netherlands to win the second half? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 50m
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +6.0% -4.1% 68% 56% -4.2%
≤30d 25 +6.0% -4.1% 68% 56% -4.2%
≤90d 25 +6.0% -4.1% 68% 56% -4.2%
all 25 +6.0% -4.1% 68% 56% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover294.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 56% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 40% -13.4%
15% -21.7% 36% -21.8%
20% -29.3% 36% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.91 · official $243.93 (match) · 355 history records