Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:59:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03c6…3dd2 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$285 (+6%) realized +$645 · open −$360
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$724
other 8% +$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +2.5% -7.3% 46% 46% -17.5%
≤30d 13 +2.5% -7.3% 46% 46% -17.5%
≤90d 13 +2.5% -7.3% 46% 46% -17.5%
all 13 +2.5% -7.3% 46% 46% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 46% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 46% -25.4%
15% -24.2% 46% -32.6%
20% -31.7% 38% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$145 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,240
Realized+$645
Unrealized−$360
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions13
Markets (closed)13 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 48¢ 94¢ $200 $391 +$191 (+95%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $200 $351 +$151 (+75%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Over 55¢ 72¢ $200 $260 +$60 (+30%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris Billy Harris 67¢ 68¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer Tristan Boyer 41¢ 41¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 65¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Toby Samuel 51¢ 50¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Atlanta Dream 56¢ 11¢ $200 $39 −$161 (-80%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ $200 $2 −$198 (-99%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ $200 $2 −$198 (-99%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 54¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $203 +$232 +114%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $204 −$200 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $203 −$200 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +146%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $203 +$161 +79%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $203 −$200 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Veronika Podrez Jun 24 $202 +$110 +55%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson Jun 24 $203 +$214 +105%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig Jun 24 $202 +$82 +41%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai Jun 24 $202 −$200 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Sara Bejlek Jun 24 $203 −$7 -3%
Taylor Fritz vs. Jan Choinski: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $203 −$7 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 67¢ $202 31m
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 56¢ $203 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer BUY Tristan Boyer 41¢ $204 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Toby Samuel 51¢ $203 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $203 2h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $202 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $203 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 2h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 65¢ $202 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 55¢ $203 3h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $204 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 46¢ $203 4h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $203 4h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai BUY Zhuoxuan Bai 63¢ $202 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Veronika Podrez BUY Maria Timofeeva 64¢ $202 9h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 46¢ $102 9h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 46¢ $102 9h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson BUY Heather Watson 48¢ $203 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 12h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $203 14h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $203 14h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig BUY Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 70¢ $202 15h
Taylor Fritz vs. Jan Choinski: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $203 15h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Sara Bejlek BUY Zeynep Sonmez 51¢ $203 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,239.72 · official $2,239.72 (match) · 36 history records