Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03c8…3d82 crypto 585 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$603 (-8%) realized −$604 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%272W / 312L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$334
sports 13% −$285
other 11% −$15
world 1% −$72
weather 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 +0.3% -9.3% 54% 54% -10.5%
≤30d 151 +0.3% -9.3% 54% 54% -10.5%
≤90d 165 -2.3% -11.6% 52% 52% -11.4%
all 584 -8.1% -16.9% 47% 46% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 46% -18.0%
10% -24.8% 45% -25.8%
15% -32.1% 44% -33.0%
20% -38.7% 41% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$604
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses272 / 312
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)584 / 585
History coverage146d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 584 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 52¢ 57¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$11 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$14 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$16 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$35 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$37 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$40 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$25 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$25 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$24 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$25 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$11 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$12 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$11 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$15 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$11 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $14 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $14 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $32 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $13 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $12 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $66 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.95 · official $5.85 · 1609 history records