Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:47:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x03cb…8f23
crypto · 1210 markets active 1h ago
6.0score
+$2,716 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,716 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$59
Realized+$2,716
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1011 / 198
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1209 / 1210
History coverage96d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1209 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$7
14 days+$498
30 days+$1,010
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 77¢ 100¢ $46 $59 +$14 (+30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $82 +$34 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $82 −$81 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $82 +$36 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $82 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $83 +$44 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $82 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $80 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $81 +$13 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $81 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $81 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $82 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $83 +$45 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $81 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $81 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $82 +$51 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $82 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$5 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $81 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $76 −$74 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $81 +$8 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $39 −$38 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $49 +$29 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $81 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $82 +$32 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $81 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $81 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $81 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $82 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $81 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $81 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $80 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $82 +$17 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 08 $81 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $81 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $82 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $81 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $82 +$16 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $81 +$23 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 07 $83 +$78 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 07 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $81 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $81 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $82 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 06 $82 +$23 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 06 $17 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $81 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 06 $82 +$19 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$2,716
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $82 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $82 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $83 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $82 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $83 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $82 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $80 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $81 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $81 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $81 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $82 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $83 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $82 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $82 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $14 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $81 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $76 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $81 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $39 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $49 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $81 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $82 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $81 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $81 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $81 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $82 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +1.1% -8.6% 83% 46% -9.7%
≤30d 285 +3.9% -6.0% 84% 52% -5.2%
≤90d 1012 +9.9% -0.5% 84% 56% -3.8%
all 1209 +9.8% -0.7% 84% 56% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 56% -3.7%
10% -10.2% 37% -12.9%
15% -18.8% 26% -21.3%
20% -26.8% 17% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.18 · official $59.18 (match) · 2414 history records