Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:25:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03cd…695e other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%3W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$467per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$7
politics 31% −$11
world 19% −$2
culture 9% −$2
crypto 2% +$3
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 37 +0.2% -9.3% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 37 +0.2% -9.3% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$996) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses3 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage88d
Avg bet$467
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $107 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $45 $0 -0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $80 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Jun 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $1,242 −$1 -0%
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 24 $1,359 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 24 $1,324 −$1 -0%
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? Jun 23 $1,317 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 23 $1,509 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio May 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $947 −$2 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $54 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan? May 23 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $961 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 22? May 22 $21 +$2 +9%
Will Belinda Bencic win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,005 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next R May 20 $1,028 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $996 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $35 +$1 +3%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 08 $146 $0 -0%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026? Apr 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 05 $171 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Denny McCarthy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $71 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $107 46m
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $86 51m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 58m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $19 1h
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 2d
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $13 2d
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $972 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $67 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $269 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,242 2d
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,358 3d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 3d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,345 3d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,295 3d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 3d
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,275 3d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $966 3d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $356 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records