Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:58:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
03 0x03ce…8b5b sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,254 (-35%) realized −$1,239 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1,094
30 days−$1,258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$1,035
sports 29% −$237
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -38.6% -44.5% 44% 44% -65.4%
≤90d 9 -38.6% -44.5% 44% 44% -65.4%
all 9 -38.6% -44.5% 44% 44% -65.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.5% 44% -65.4%
10% -49.8% 22% -68.8%
15% -54.6% 22% -71.8%
20% -59.1% 11% -74.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$286 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$1,517
Realized−$1,239
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)9 / 15
History coverage18d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 44¢ 44¢ $1,168 $1,181 +$13 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $102 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $103 $100 −$3 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will Team Yandex win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament Yes 12¢ 15¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+25%)
Will Team Falcons win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament Yes 22¢ 12¢ $21 $12 −$9 (-43%)
Will LGD Gaming win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament Yes 18¢ 11¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,031 −$1,031 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $51 +$37 +73%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $342 +$73 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $115 +$45 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $97 +$18 +18%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LGD Gaming win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Team Falcons win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will LGD Gaming win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Team Yandex win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Team Yandex win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Team Falcons win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Will LGD Gaming win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Will LGD Gaming win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Team Falcons win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Team Yandex win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Will Team Falcons win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Team Yandex win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will LGD Gaming win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will Team Yandex win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Team Falcons win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Team Falcons win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Team Yandex win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Team Yandex win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Will Team Yandex win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Team Falcons win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will Team Yandex win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 44¢ $1,188 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $103 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $103 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $104 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $1,031 10d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $88 10d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $51 11d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $101 13d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $101 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,516.67 · official $1,516.67 (match) · 40 history records