Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03d0…4f6b crypto 66 markets active 6d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-6%) realized −$55 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%19W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$31
other 13% −$61
sports 10% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +20.3% +8.8% 24% 24% -21.8%
≤30d 61 +15.9% +4.8% 31% 31% -19.3%
≤90d 61 +15.9% +4.8% 31% 31% -19.3%
all 61 +15.9% +4.8% 31% 31% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.8% 31% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -5.2% 31% -27.0%
15% -14.3% 31% -34.0%
20% -22.7% 30% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$18 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$55
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses19 / 42
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)61 / 66
History coverage4d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$11 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$25 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $34 +$48 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$59 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$53 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$199 +1865%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$67 +424%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$22 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$50 +316%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$36 +676%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 11 $67 −$66 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $15 +$12 +78%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$6 +111%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzego BUY 13¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $82 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $85 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.23 · official $97.23 (match) · 128 history records