Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:21:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03d3…eab1 crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-5%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate90%60W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$21
other 16% −$10
tech 4% +$1
economics 4% +$1
sports 1% −$6
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 4 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -7.8%
all 67 -6.9% -15.8% 90% 3% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 3% -14.1%
10% -23.8% 0% -22.3%
15% -31.2% 0% -29.8%
20% -37.9% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses60 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage489d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 01 $28 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 09 $29 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 16-22? Apr 24 $27 +$2 +6%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Pump.fun airdrop in Q3 2025? Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $23 +$4 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 21 $50 −$27 -54%
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 5-11? Jan 26 $24 $0 +0%
Over $100M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will 22-24 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025? Jan 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 08 $14 $0 +2%
Will BNB hit $1500 by December 31? Jan 08 $17 $0 +1%
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 18 $15 +$1 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 18 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Dec 08 $14 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Dec 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? Nov 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Nov 10 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 10 $14 +$1 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 09 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $270 September 8–14? Sep 28 $7 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 8–14? Sep 28 $7 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12? Sep 28 $6 +$1 +18%
Solana reach 240 September 1–7? Sep 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Sep 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Sep 06 $8 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum close above $1800 on July 31? Aug 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 21 $5 −$3 -57%
Avail airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 12 $3 $0 +2%
Rainbow airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 12 $3 $0 +5%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 12 $6 $0 +1%
XRP all time high by June 30? Jul 12 $6 $0 +2%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Jul 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 12 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 12 $7 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 12 $12 $0 +2%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Solana all time high in May? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $18 before June? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in May? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Devin Booker win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $28 20d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? BUY No 99¢ $28 46d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $29 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 16-22? BUY No 94¢ $27 98d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $27 98d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $23 123d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $23 123d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 149d
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $24 167d
Over $100M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY No 100¢ $25 167d
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale? SELL No 58¢ $16 187d
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale? BUY No 55¢ $15 188d
Will BNB hit $1500 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $17 197d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $13 197d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 99¢ $15 219d
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? BUY No 99¢ $14 225d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $16 225d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $13 257d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 91¢ $14 257d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 269d
Will Solana reach $270 September 8–14? BUY No 97¢ $7 286d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 99¢ $7 286d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 8–14? BUY No 98¢ $7 286d
Solana reach 240 September 1–7? BUY No 99¢ $14 291d
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12? BUY No 85¢ $6 291d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 98¢ $14 312d
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? BUY No 98¢ $8 312d
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? BUY No 99¢ $7 312d
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? BUY No 85¢ $6 312d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 139 history records