Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:06:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03d6…15b7 sports 135 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,491 (+2%) realized +$1,830 · open −$339
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate52%69W / 63L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$570per market
Trades / day37.7pace
Fees−$1,464est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$81
14 days+$81
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -42.5% -48.0% 50% 25% -4.2%
≤30d 67 +48.8% +34.6% 57% 30% -8.8%
≤90d 132 +14.1% +3.2% 52% 25% -8.0%
all 132 +14.1% +3.2% 52% 25% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.2% 25% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -6.7% 13% -16.8%
15% -15.7% 10% -24.9%
20% -24.0% 8% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$670) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$48 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$500
Realized+$1,830
Unrealized−$339
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses69 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1,464
Open positions3
Markets (closed)132 / 135
History coverage52d
Avg bet$570
Trades / day37.7
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 44¢ 48¢ $461 $500 +$39 (+9%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 70¢ 0¢ $377 $0 −$377 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Karmine Corp 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $1,432 +$14 +1%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $487 −$67 -14%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $618 +$179 +29%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,105 −$6 -0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $759 −$10 -1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $730 +$5 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $900 +$168 +19%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $700 +$17 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $566 −$75 -13%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,381 +$68 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $61 −$16 -26%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $919 −$183 -20%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $933 +$24 +3%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,664 +$70 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,083 +$92 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $0 $0 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $712 −$80 -11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,528 +$50 +3%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,543 +$59 +4%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,108 −$89 -8%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $876 +$23 +3%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,760 +$157 +9%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $396 −$23 -6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $65 −$65 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $43 −$43 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $215 +$39 +18%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $734 +$157 +21%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $694 −$3 -0%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $106 −$106 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $387 −$95 -25%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,237 −$127 -10%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $1,295 +$23 +2%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $641 +$5 +1%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,646 −$366 -22%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $52 +$8 +15%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $5 +$25 +530%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,086 +$102 +9%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $492 +$5 +1%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $540 +$5 +1%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $1,010 +$64 +6%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $2,441 −$278 -11%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $0 $0 +16%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $478 +$51 +11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $1,831 +$60 +3%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $1,515 +$66 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 35¢ $189 6m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 55¢ $9 8m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 55¢ $7 8m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 53¢ $290 9m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 85¢ $459 46m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $456 47m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 89¢ $56 52m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 89¢ $10 52m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 89¢ $27 52m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 89¢ $9 52m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 89¢ $0 52m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 89¢ $268 52m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 89¢ $110 52m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $477 53m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 13¢ $70 58m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $67 58m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 81¢ $397 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 81¢ $11 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 81¢ $24 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 81¢ $6 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $127 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $20 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $158 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $119 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $1,079 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 90¢ $421 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 90¢ $25 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 90¢ $40 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $500.18 · official $500.18 (match) · 1977 history records