Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x03d6…9cc4 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate62%28W / 17L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$8
other 30% −$1
politics 11% +$1
sports 8% +$5
culture 6% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 15 +2.9% -6.9% 53% 13% -7.8%
≤90d 15 +2.9% -6.9% 53% 13% -7.8%
all 45 +0.4% -9.2% 62% 7% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 7% -8.1%
10% -17.9% 0% -16.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -24.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses28 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage457d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $43 −$2 -5%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $44 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $12 +$1 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $1 $0 -4%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 26 $12 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 07 $6 $0 +2%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 07 $6 $0 -4%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will Aaron Rodgers retire? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect May 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 22 $3 $0 -2%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 20 $5 $0 +6%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 10 $4 −$2 -61%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 09 $47 $0 +0%
UEFA Europa League: Tottenham vs. Bodø/Glimt (To Advance) May 08 $47 +$5 +10%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 07 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 18 $12 $0 -1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 29 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $41 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $43 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $43 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $43 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $31 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $44 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $44 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $43 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $42 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $28 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $19 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 25¢ $17 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records