Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03db…2282 other 228 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 216L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$29
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$40
sports 23% −$18
culture 8% −$7
politics 7% −$5
world 5% −$4
economics 5% −$1
crypto 4% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 163 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 227 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)227 / 228
History coverage130d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $99 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $539 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 19 $317 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $373 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $278 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $226 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $368 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $540 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $791 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $302 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $407 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $365 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $268 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $188 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $654 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $183 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $266 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $141 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $48 31m
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 5h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 7h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 8h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 10h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $49 11h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 13h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $49 14h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $49 15h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 17h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 19h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 20h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 21h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 23h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 25h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $49 27h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 31h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 32h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $49 33h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 36h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 38h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 38h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 40h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 42h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 43h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $50 45h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $50 47h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $43 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.39 · official $48.39 (match) · 1331 history records