Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:26:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
03 0x03e1…e180 other 403 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$842 (+4%) realized +$1,118 · open −$276
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate53%147W / 128L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day63.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$2,573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$793
14 days+$757
30 days+$1,010
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$87
politics 18% +$155
world 17% +$104
tech 13% +$280
sports 5% +$215
finance 3% +$56
economics 2% +$5
weather 1% +$20
crypto 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 +8.1% -2.2% 53% 36% -1.4%
≤30d 275 +10.4% -0.1% 53% 35% -3.9%
≤90d 275 +10.4% -0.1% 53% 35% -3.9%
all 275 +10.4% -0.1% 53% 35% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.1% 35% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -9.6% 24% -13.1%
15% -18.4% 18% -21.5%
20% -26.4% 13% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$15 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$2,573
Realized+$1,118
Unrealized−$276
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses147 / 128
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions128
Markets (closed)275 / 403
History coverage30d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day63.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 128 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin 34%-36%? No 54¢ 61¢ $103 $117 +$13 (+13%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 52¢ 64¢ $93 $114 +$21 (+23%)
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? No 62¢ 64¢ $104 $106 +$2 (+2%)
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $91 $95 +$4 (+4%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 42¢ 46¢ $67 $74 +$7 (+10%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-18 House seat? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 74¢ 76¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 82¢ 88¢ $63 $67 +$4 (+6%)
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 38¢ $91 $65 −$26 (-29%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? No 37¢ 32¢ $75 $65 −$10 (-13%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 75¢ 87¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $70 $54 −$16 (-22%)
Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? No 67¢ 72¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 68¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+3%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? No 76¢ 80¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? No 60¢ 58¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 74¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? No 64¢ 62¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 68¢ 69¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 81¢ $42 $47 +$5 (+11%)
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election? No 67¢ 42¢ $73 $46 −$26 (-36%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? Yes 61¢ 46¢ $62 $46 −$16 (-26%)
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Ju Jun 25 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? Jun 25 $50 +$9 +18%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 25 $200 −$42 -21%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? Jun 25 $37 −$24 -64%
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag Jun 25 $14 +$4 +29%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 25 $61 −$9 -14%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 25 $11 −$4 -31%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $99 +$9 +9%
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $123 +$35 +28%
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $68 −$6 -9%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $8 +$2 +29%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 25 $34 −$3 -9%
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect Jun 24 $16 −$4 -25%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $39 −$3 -7%
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Jun 24 $28 −$19 -68%
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Jun 24 $50 −$10 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $25 +$24 +96%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 24 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 24? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 24 $25 −$5 -21%
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026? Jun 24 $20 −$5 -27%
Will Qatar be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $111 −$17 -15%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $50 +$69 +138%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 24 $75 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 -4%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 24 $50 −$1 -1%
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Jun 24 $2 +$3 +129%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? Jun 24 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 24 $54 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? Jun 24 $65 +$44 +68%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 24 $215 +$47 +22%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $150 −$3 -2%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $56 −$6 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23? Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 24 $88 +$14 +15%
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 24 $60 +$51 +85%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in June 2026? Jun 24 $8 +$14 +178%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $50 $0 -1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $98 −$90 -92%
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $63 +$5 +7%
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Jun 24 $16 +$9 +58%
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Jun 24 $14 $0 +3%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 24 $121 +$40 +33%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $8 −$4 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 42¢ $12 6m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 42¢ $8 6m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 17m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 22m
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 25m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 28m
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election BUY Yes 39¢ $20 53m
Will Relay launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $21 1h
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $8 1h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–S BUY No 60¢ $4 1h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–S BUY No 62¢ $39 1h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–S BUY No 62¢ $8 1h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–S BUY No 62¢ $3 1h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–S BUY No 63¢ $50 1h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 13¢ $4 3h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 13¢ $5 3h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 13¢ $4 3h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $50 3h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $5 3h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo SELL Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo SELL Yes 24¢ $12 3h
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo SELL Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo SELL Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Ju SELL Yes 74¢ $40 3h
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? BUY No 64¢ $50 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,572.55 · official $2,569.53 (match) · 1997 history records