Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03e1…cf9b world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$2
other 27% −$2
crypto 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 -5.9% -14.8% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 17 -5.9% -14.8% 29% 0% -9.4%
all 30 -6.1% -15.1% 50% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -23.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage472d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 96¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $111 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $36 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $52 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $41 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $70 +$2 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $39 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $36 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 15 $1 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $2 $0 +4%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 20 $8 $0 -4%
Will 'Black Bag' gross between 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 16 $14 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $13 $0 +3%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $3 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $34 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $3 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 45h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $19 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $18 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $36 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $9 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $27 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $32 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $4 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $40 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $40 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $10 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $10 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $16 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $36 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $39 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $39 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.27 · official $36.27 (match) · 97 history records