Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x03e7…d5b4 crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$23 (+7%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate65%20W / 11L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% +$3
other 37% +$54
sports 26% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +3.9% -6.0% 65% 61% +11.5%
≤30d 31 +3.9% -6.0% 65% 61% +11.5%
≤90d 31 +3.9% -6.0% 65% 61% +11.5%
all 31 +3.9% -6.0% 65% 61% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 61% +11.5%
10% -15.0% 48% +0.9%
15% -23.2% 26% -8.9%
20% -30.7% 19% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses20 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage3d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $37 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$3 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $24 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $55 +$45 +82%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 +$9 +20%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $43 −$14 -32%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$18 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $30 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records